Texas retail has quietly become the most fundamentally healthy commercial real estate segment in the state. Statewide retail vacancy is at 4.6% — the lowest since the early 2000s — and the new-supply pipeline is the thinnest in 25 years. Grocery-anchored centers are full, second-generation restaurant space gets multiple offers, and quality strip centers in growth submarkets are trading at sub-7% caps to private buyers who can't find better income product.
The story isn't uniform. Class C inline space in tertiary submarkets continues to struggle. Big-box vacancy from 2020-2022 tenant losses hasn't fully recovered. And new retail development is muted because rents can't yet justify replacement-cost construction in most submarkets.
This report walks through Q2 2026 rent, cap rate, vacancy, and tenant demand data across the four major Texas metros, with commentary on what's actually closing — and where the value-add plays live.
Executive summary — Q2 2026 retail in five numbers
Texas retail's headline metrics tell a coherent story for the first time in several years — and it's a positive one. Below are the five numbers that anchor the rest of this report.
- Statewide retail vacancy: 4.6% (down 30 bps YoY) — the tightest reading in 25+ years
- New retail construction starts: 3.8M SF YTD across Texas — the lowest year-over-year volume since 1998
- Average asking rent for grocery-anchored shop space: $32.40/SF NNN in primary submarkets, $24.60/SF in secondary
- Single-tenant NNN cap rates (investment-grade credit, 10-15 yr WALT): 5.4%-6.4%
- Strip center cap rates (multi-tenant, grocery or power anchored, primary submarket): 6.2%-7.4%
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What you'll walk away with:
- Shop space and anchor rents by submarket — primary vs secondary vs tertiary
- Cap rate evidence from Q2 2026 retail trades — single-tenant NNN, strip, power center
- Anchor tenant expansion plans and what category strength looks like in 2026
- Vacancy by category — grocery-anchored, power center, lifestyle, inline
- Where Texas retail is genuinely tight and where the soft pockets remain
What's in the rest of the report
- Rents and demand by category
- Cap rates — what actually traded
- Anchor tenant expansion — who's growing
- Metro-by-metro commentary
- What we're telling clients